While crypto markets remain notoriously unpredictable, prediction markets are painting an increasingly optimistic picture for XRP’s ETF prospects. Polymarket currently shows an 87% probability of XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025, with odds jumping 12 points in just one week. The near-term outlook appears more measured, with a 32% chance of approval before July 31, 2025.
Prediction markets signal growing XRP ETF optimism, with approval odds soaring to 87% by end-2025.
This surging optimism stems from several key developments. Ripple’s decisive legal victory against the SEC, coupled with regulators dropping their appeal of the court ruling that XRP is not inherently a security, has cleared major regulatory hurdles. The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration has further buoyed investor confidence. This regulatory shift highlights the importance of global compliance frameworks that balance innovation protection with consumer safeguards.
The race for XRP ETF approval has attracted heavyweight financial players. At least seven major firms have thrown their hats in the ring, including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares. Volatility Shares has gone a step further, filing for spot, leveraged, and inverse XRP ETFs. Industry giants BlackRock and Fidelity are also expected to join the fray.
If approved, these ETFs could trigger substantial market movements. Analysts project $6-8 billion in inflows during the first year, potentially pushing XRP beyond its current $2.40-$2.46 range. Bitwise’s bullish scenario estimates values between $12.70-$29.32 by 2030 – though such projections should be taken with a grain of skepticism, given crypto’s volatile nature.
The regulatory landscape has shifted dramatically in crypto’s favor. The SEC is reviewing multiple XRP ETF applications with a decision deadline in mid-October 2025. The new administration has already halted lawsuits against major exchanges and is implementing more crypto-friendly policies.
Despite the rosy outlook, challenges remain. While the major legal battle appears won, lingering appeal processes could continue into 2025. Some analysts caution that approval expectations may already be priced into XRP’s value, potentially limiting post-approval gains. Competing altcoins like Solana are also vying for ETF approval in an increasingly crowded field.
