Three consecutive weeks of downward pressure have finally pushed Bitcoin below its 100-day simple moving average for the first time since April 2025, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. The flagship cryptocurrency slumped to as low as $109,172, marking a decline of over 1% in the past 24 hours and an 11% drop from its August 14 peak of $124,533.
Bitcoin’s three-week slide below the 100-day SMA signals changing tides as the market recoils from recent peaks.
Technical analysts are watching the breach with concern as it coincided with Bitcoin breaking below the Ichimoku cloud—think of this as Bitcoin’s technical umbrella suddenly blowing inside out during a storm. Adding to the bearish outlook, the violation of the upward trendline from April lows and consecutive negative MACD histogram readings suggest the bears might be gaining control of the steering wheel.
Meanwhile, altcoins are showing surprising resilience. XRP remains above its 100-day SMA while consolidating within the Ichimoku cloud—like a cautious swimmer treading water rather than diving in either direction. Ethereum and Solana have maintained positions above both their 100-day SMAs and Ichimoku clouds, showcasing relative technical strength compared to Bitcoin’s stumble. This divergence comes as Bitcoin recently tested the key $90K resistance before its current bullish pattern developed.
For traders eyeing potential entry points, Bitcoin now faces immediate resistance at $111,592, $117,416, and the psychological $120,000 mark. A bullish reversal would require Bitcoin to overcome resistance at $117,416 from the August 22 lower high. Support levels include $105,390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and the critical $100,928 (200-day SMA)—the difference between a minor correction and a potential free-fall.
The market dynamics reveal an interesting shift: institutional investors holding 100-1,000 BTC have increased their share to 23.07% of total supply since January, while retail investors have reduced their short-term holdings by 38% during the same period. This investor behavior aligns with the Fear & Greed Index currently at 47 out of 100, reflecting widespread market anxiety.
U.S. ETFs now control a significant 6.8% of circulating Bitcoin.
If current support levels fail to hold, some analysts draw parallels to February’s sell-off that sent prices toward $75,000. However, the ongoing institutional accumulation suggests underlying confidence despite the technical breakdown that has shifted chart control to the bears.
